Russia very likely to pre-emptively terminate gas sales to European Union ahead of Brussels ban, exploiting energy crisis caused by Iran conflict

Russian President Vladimir Putin, during an in-house Kremlin interview on 4 March, hinted that Russia may cease gas shipments to European Union (EU), ahead of the EU’s own permanent bans for short-term gas imports from 25 April 2026 for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and 17 June 2026 for pipeline gas, and for long-term contracts from 1 January 2027. Alluding to the Iran crisis and the EU’s energy phase-out, Putin said “now other markets are opening up … perhaps it’s more advantageous to stop supplying the European market right now”. 

Janes assesses that the interview was intentionally staged as an impromptu engagement. 

Image caption: Putin speaks during the naming ceremony of the Russian Christophe de Margerie Arctic LNG tanker, June 2017, St Petersburg, Russia.  Image credit: Olga Maltseva/Pool/AFP via Getty Images 

Janes assesses that Russia is willing to fully forego its natural gas exports to the EU as Moscow very likely aims to exacerbate the EU’s energy security concerns throughout 2026. Energy concerns in Europe have increased following the 28 February US-Israel strikes on Iran that triggered Tehran’s retaliation against oil and gas infrastructure of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. These events coincide with the months critical for the EU to replenish gas reserves depleted during winter. 

A Russian pre-emptive pivot of energy exports away from the EU is almost certain as the Kremlin attempts to use the Iran crisis for its own goals in counteracting the EU’s phase-out of Russian energy. On 3 December 2025, the European Council reached an agreement to phase out imports of pipelined and liquefied gas from Russia with a full ban from the end of 2026 and 2027 respectively. However Moscow will almost certainly continue supplying Slovakia, Hungary, and Serbia in Europe – with whom Russia maintains commercial relations, while increasing maritime shipments to Asia, particularly China and India. As of 2025, Russia supplied China with 20% of its oil imports or 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd). China is also increasingly reliant on Russian gas – in September 2025 Russia’s Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation signed a memorandum to build the second gas pipeline, Power of Siberia 2, for an additional 50 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas annually. They also signed an agreement mandating Gazprom to increase capacity of the existing Power of Siberia 1 pipeline from 30 bcm in 2024 to 44 bcm annually. Russia’s pipelined gas shipments to China outpaced Qatar’s liquefied gas shipments already prior to the March 2026 crisis, with Russian supplies exceeding Qatari supplies since early 2024. As of 2024, Russia supplied 20% of China’s total imports of natural gas, up from 8% in 2021. 

Janes assesses, for Russia to successfully increase maritime energy exports, Moscow almost certainly understands it needs to ensure maritime safety for its fleet. On 3 March, a Russian LNG carrier Arctic Metagaz was attacked and severely damaged in the Mediterranean. On 4 March, Putin stated that this “was a terrorist attack”. In the 18 months since September 2024, Janes recorded at least 16 large incidents – eight maritime interdictions with Russia-linked vessels seized, or seized and later released, as well as another eight attacks with vessels sunk or heavily damaged.