Yemen conflict spotlight: February - March 2025

Date Posted: 01-Apr-2025
Author:  James Trigg, London

Amid Ansar Allah's campaign of attacks against Israel and shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, the domestic conflict in Yemen has continued. James Trigg reviews the latest conflict events involving Ansar Allah, the Yemeni Armed Forces, and forces aligned with the Southern Transitional Council to identify and assess the locations, tactics, and developments of note

Key points

• Janes Central Events recorded 23 relevant conflict events from 1 to 20 March across Yemen
• This compares with 43 conflict events recorded from 1 to 28 February
• Al Dhale: Between 2 and 4 March the Yemeni Khabar News Agency reported clashes between Ansar Allah and the STC-affiliated Southern Resistance Brigades across various fronts west of Qa'tabah, including the use of an explosives-laden unmanned aerial vehicle. One soldier was killed and three others were wounded
• Al Jawf: On 6 March YAF-affiliated forces announced the destruction of equipment deployed by Ansar Allah to construct fortifications and roads
• Ansar Allah resumes attacks on USS Harry S Truman: Following US airstrikes overnight between 15 and 16 March, the spokesperson for the YAF aligned with Ansar Allah, Brigadier General Yahya Sare'e, announced on 16 March that Ansar Allah had targeted the USS Harry S Truman aircraft carrier and escorting warships “with 18 ballistic and cruise missiles and a drone”. Brig Gen Sare'e claimed further attacks against the aircraft carrier and supporting warships on 17, 18, and 19 March

Report notes

• SC = Significant change
• MC = Moderate change
• NSC = No significant change

March 2025 intelligence assessments

Ansar Allah

• Intent: (NSC) Janes assesses that Ansar Allah (commonly known as the Houthis) likely remains committed to applying coercive political and economic pressure on Israel through the launch of missile and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) against targets in Israel and vessels passing through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Amid the domestic Yemeni conflict, Janes assesses that Ansar Allah's priorities likely centre on the key cities of Taiz and Marib. Ansar Allah has sought to mobilise Yemeni public outrage towards Israel in the conduct of its conflict in Gaza to encourage the recruitment of new fighters and the continuation of military operations against its domestic rivals.
• Capabilities: (NSC)Janes assesses that Ansar Allah likely continues to possess the capabilities to conduct attacks against shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, as well as launch missiles and UAVs against Israel. Furthermore, Ansar Allah's ability to launch and co-ordinate offensive actions against the group's domestic opponents has not been degraded as of March 2025.
• Threat to other Yemeni factions: (NSC) Janes notes that Ansar Allah has struggled to convert its military activity in Yemen into gains against its opponents since October 2023, with the Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF)- and Southern Transitional Council (STC)-aligned forces succeeding in repelling Ansar Allah's advances towards their positions. Janes assesses that Ansar Allah will likely continue seeking to establish entrenched positions and roads to facilitate the group's sieges and assaults against Marib and Taiz.
• Threat to Israel and shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden: (NSC)Janes assesses that Ansar Allah will almost certainly continue to exaggerate the success and impact of its attacks against Israel or United States warships operating in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in the immediate term (one to four weeks) to encourage additional disruption to international shipping and bolster domestic support for Ansar Allah's actions.
• Indicators: Indicators that may change Janes assessments include any tactical shifts in Ansar Allah's conduct of its conflict with its domestic Yemeni rivals, increases in the group's successful targeting of shipping or targets in Israel, and the progress of negotiations between Ansar Allah and Saudi Arabia to reach a ceasefire.

STC

• Intent: (NSC) While the STC will almost certainly continue to clash with Ansar Allah, Janes assesses that the STC and its affiliated militias are very likely to continue political agitation for an independent southern Yemen, coupled with small-scale and opportunistic clashes with rival Yemeni forces when able.
• Capabilities: (NSC) Janes assesses that the STC maintains the capability to conduct its unilateral counter-terrorism operations and project its own authority over the territory claimed by the STC as its independent southern Yemeni state. Janes assesses that the STC and its affiliated militias will very likely continue to seek to exert political and military influence over Hadramawt, Yemen's largest governorate.
• Threat to other Yemeni factions: (NSC) Janes assesses that the STC is unlikely to significantly change the security landscape across Yemen in theshort term (four weeks to six months). This is predominantly due to the STC's desire to avoid an escalation to unrestricted direct conflict between itself and its domestic Yemeni rivals while the conflict with Ansar Allah continues.
• Indicators: Indicators that may change Janes assessments include increased territorial disputes between STC-affiliated militias and their domestic rivals, or a deterioration in relations between the government of Yemen and the STC.

YAF

• Intent: (NSC) Janes assesses that the YAF is likely to continue operating to defend the territory still administered by the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) government of Yemen. Janes assesses that the YAF is unlikely to launch major offensive operations against Ansar Allah in the immediate to short term.
• Capabilities: (NSC) Janes assesses that the YAF has significantly benefited from the donation of military equipment by members of the Saudi‐led coalition since 2015. However, Janes also assesses that this effort has likely only been partially effective and substantial capability gaps likely need to be addressed if Yemeni forces are to be capable of providing security in the long term (12–24 months).
• Threat to other Yemeni factions: (NSC) Janes assesses that the YAF will likely continue to focus its operational efforts against Ansar Allah. The fragmented composition of the YAF, including the reliance on STC-affiliated forces and informal militias, reduces the YAF's capacity to confront its rivals or exert a monopoly on the use of force.
• Indicators: Indicators that may change Janes assessments include increases in international materiel and manpower support for the YAF, consolidation and amalgamation of the various forces fighting as part of the YAF to improve the cohesion of command and control, and shifts in YAF conduct towards more offensive actions against Ansar Allah.
  

Yemen conflict: Areas of control among Yemeni factions, November 2024 to February 2025. (Janes Central Events)

Marib governorate

Significant events

• Janes Central Events captured nine relevant conflict events across Marib governorate from 1 to 20 March.
• Janes Central Events recorded two assaults by Ansar Allah along the Raghwan front to the northwest of Marib city on 6 and 11 March.
• On 8 March Ansar Allah launched an assault against positions held by the Southern Giants Brigades in the Harib district in southern Marib.
• On 17 March the YAF-affiliated forces reported the destruction of equipment utilised by Ansar Allah for the construction of roads and fortifications in the Al A'raf sector of Marib's southern Harib al Qaramish district.

For more information, please see Yemen conflict spotlight February-March 2025