Likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Claire Chu is a senior China analyst at Janes Group. She specializes in the geopolitical and national security implications of China’s global economic activity. She recently joined Janes in 2022 after the company’s acquisition of RWR Advisory Group, where she was in the same role, leading the firm’s China practice. Claire launched RWR’s Belt and Road Monitor in 2017, which provides a comprehensive biweekly overview of China’s overseas trade and investment activities and policy developments, and served as the editor until 2020. Claire previously held research roles at think tanks including the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) in Berlin, Germany, the Project 2049 Institute in Arlington, and the Center for the National Interest in Washington, DC. She has also worked on rule of law and governance issues at the Congressional-Executive Commission on China (CECC) and at Human Rights Watch. Claire has testified before the U.S. House of Representatives and her commentary has been featured in major media outlets in the United States, Europe, and Asia, including the Financial Times, Bloomberg, Voice of America, Foreign Policy, and Nikkei Asia.

F Xavier Casals is a Lead Analyst within the Northeast Asia and Oceania Country Intelligence team at Janes. He is the primary analyst for China and Taiwan and has been studying China and the wider East Asia region since 2012, specialising in China’s foreign and security policies, China’s politics, and China’s outlook on national security. Xavier has travelled extensively around China, and has spent a year studying and working in the country. He is fluent in Mandarin Chinese and speaks nine other languages at different levels, including Catalan, Spanish, English, Italian, Greek, Farsi, French, Arabic, and German. Xavier holds an MA in Chinese Studies from Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona and an MA in War Studies from King’s College London.