Insight report: China's expansion of military infrastructure in the Taiwan Strait likely to focus on reinforcing air force, rocket force capabilities
Intelligence requirement
- Is China expanding military bases in the ETC?
- Is China expanding logistics and military healthcare facilities in the ETC?
- Is China expanding port facilities in the ETC?
In the December 2024 report Janes analysts examined military infrastructure development in the ETC as part of the ‘Expansion of military infrastructure in the ETC’ indicator. Janes observed only minor changes in military logistics and healthcare facilities in the ETC from June to November 2024, with the most significant changes observed in dual-use facilities, where provincial governments are expanding civilian-use infrastructure. This contributed to the indicator’s assessment of low warning:
Indicator assessment. Image credit: Janes
The observation periods varied based on imagery availability but attempted to capture activity from 2023 to 2025. The analysis will also provide an assessment on the most likely outlook for these trends in the next six to 12 months.
Analysis
Infrastructure development activity was identified at 32 of the 70 locations and can be categorised as either periodic, minor, or major.
Periodic activity consists of repetitive maintenance tasks such as runway resurfacing or reroofing buildings.
Minor activity can include work such as adding a small number of structures, indicative of infrastructure upgrades but not indicative of deployment of additional assets.
Major activity consists of large-scale infrastructure expansion, capable of supporting an increased military presence, or the deployment of newer, more capable systems.
Seven locations showed major infrastructure activity. Six of these locations were PLA Air Force (PLAAF) or PLA Navy Air Force (PLANAF) airbases, with the seventh being a PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) garrison.
People’s Liberation Army Ground Force (PLAGF)
PLAGF ETC installations observed by Janes during the reporting period did not show significant changes, likely indicating that they are largely in a finished state. Given the PLAGF’s historical prominence in the PLA, it is likely that resources are being focused on developing the infrastructure of other PLA services. The PLAGF also likely does not require an expansion of existing infrastructure for staging its forces for a Taiwan scenario as it will very likely be reliant on the PLAAF and PLA Navy (PLAN) for cross-strait movement.
PLAAF
PLAAF ETC infrastructure upgrades observed by Janes during the reporting period indicate measures taken to improve the housing and storage capacity for air assets and equipment, development of potential forward operating bases (FOBs), and dual-use facilities to support air operations with additional staging areas.
For more information, please see Insight report: China’s expansion of military infrastructure in the Taiwan Strait likely to focus on reinforcing air force, rocket force capabilities
